Why is Bitcoin’s noticeable volatility below 100% in a Bull run?

Investors who have witnessed Bitcoin’s 80% price drop following the 2017 Bull Run have seen it rise from$ 1000 on Coinbase in 2020 to new ATH of $ 19891.99. Massive surge rally, silent rally and the quietest rally ever. Despite the media attention, there is some hype, especially on social media, with Bitcoin’s price soaring without the usual surge boom expected.

BTCUSD Realized Volatility

The increase in the volatility chart is volatility, which halves in the first half of 2020, after volatility remains limited to below 100%. The spike increased volatility to over 300% (occurred in 10 days). Although there are enough corporate acquisitions, volatility at an aggressive pace is relatively low. This points to two inferences: either the bull run did not start or the bull run was over, before the volatility passed 100%. Willy Woo, a popular in-chain analyst, noted previous bitcoin bull runs as a bull run due to high momentum; but the same cannot be said for the current bull run.

Bir Bull Run'da Bitcoin'in fark edilen oynaklığı neden% 100'ün altında?
Bitcoin Network Momentum | Source: Woobull Charts

Network Momentum suggests the possibility that the bull run may not have begun yet. If that’s the case, the market cycle could skip a stage rather than a drop in price this time around, and the bull run could begin when the price exceeds resistance of$ 20000. Current institutionalization can be the basis for a long and sustained price increase. Or, as in-chain analysts suspect, there could be a correction before the price discovery of over $ 20000.

The second possibility, the end of the bull run, seems less likely as the most important factor in Bitcoin’s price is its scarcity. Despite increased liquidity from selling pressure on Whales, Corporate Buying managed to keep the percentage of active supply at a 2-year low, according to data from Glassnode. While exploring these two most important possibilities, the first seems likely given the current price level below $ 19,000 and the volume of trading on spot exchanges. While it has the highest number of shorts in Bitcoin at $ 20000 on most derivatives exchanges, it has been difficult to maintain the $ 19000 level this week. When writing the Bitcoin price, coinmarketcap.com according to data from, its price was $ 1,8400.

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